It is around this time of year that various pundits predict how house prices will move in the forthcoming year. It is interesting, first of all, to look back on last year.
The Halifax house price index showed an annual change of down by .7%. Nationwide house price index went up .4% and Rightmove price house index also went up .4%. So, as you can see, really, over the whole of 2010 prices remained level.
It is interesting to see what predictions were made about 2010 by the various 'experts'. In particular, I enjoyed the prediction from Graham Beale of Nationwide, who expected a decline of 25% in house prices between 2008 - 2010. Thank heavens that didn't happen! Various other pundits predicted price drops of 36%; Jonathan Davis predicted a price drop in September of 2008, between 40 - 50% up to 2011. What all these predictions tell us is that it is pretty well impossible to predict the property market, with so many factors coming into play, not least of all, confidence.
For what it's worth, I think local property prices in the Saffron Walden area will, again, remain stable. We may see slight fluctuations with prices rising slightly in times of shortage, and dropping back again as more properties become available. The reason, in my opinion, that the market will remain stable is mainly down to finance. Mortgages are still tight and first time buyers require large deposits to enter the property market. With a shortage of first time buyers we cannot expect the property market to boom and, therefore, property prices will remain stable. This is altogether not a bad thing as it allows people to trade up confidently knowing that they will not get caught out in a rising market. Some sellers are also taking advantage of a stable market by selling their present property and moving into rented accommodation and waiting to cherry pick the best property when it becomes available.
I very much hope that the Government will come to realise that first time buyers need to be encouraged to save for their first home and offer incentives for them to do so. Banks and building societies need also to offer 90% mortgages at realistic rates.
As for Kevin Henry, we hope to continue with another successful year, expanding our property management business, which now has 85 properties under full management and at least another 80 on introductory only. It is our belief that we should have in excess of 130 fully managed properties on our books by the end of 2011.
Daniel Plumb, our area manager in Haverhill, is making significant in-roads into the Haverhill market with his wealth of local knowledge and high service values. We currently have a number of properties in Haverhill under offer and many vendors are taking advantage of the Kevin Henry service to list with us.
May I take this opportunity to wish you all a Happy New Year on behalf of the entire team at Kevin Henry. We look forward to speaking to you again in the near future.
